IPMI: the expected population of Uzbekistan to exceed 45.6 million people by 2035

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) have calculated the expected population forecast until 2035 and its impact on the social sphere and demand for electricity.

The results of the study showed:

The expected population by 2035 will be more than 45.6 million people;

The annual number of births will average 950-980 thousand people;

The coverage of children with preschool education will reach 90%, which will require the creation of an additional 1.26 million places in preschool institutions;

According to forecast calculations, the number of children aged 7-17 years will be 9.73 million by 2035, which will require the creation of an additional 8.2 million children.

By 2035, the number of outpatient clinics should be increased to 8450 units (6676 units at the beginning of 2022).

The expected demand for electricity from the population will grow annually by 5-5.3% until 2035.

To meet the growing demand from both the population and the economy as a whole, it will be required by 2030. increase the energy capacity by at least 1.7 times relative to the existing level.

Given the filling of the existing deficit, estimated at about 8-10% of demand, the demand for electricity from the growing population will increase at a faster rate in the range of 6.2-6.5% in the period up to 2035.

The results of the study suggest the following:

In order to avoid a fiscal burden in the face of increasing public debt, it is important to establish systematic work with private participants in the education and healthcare market, facilitating the issuance of licenses and other documents.

It is expedient for members of the regional Kengash of people's deputies to take into account the forecasts of demographic development in the distribution of budgetary funds and medium-term planning of the social infrastructure of the regions.

Given the demographic projections, international and local participants in the education and health market, as well as providers of relevant technologies, can be confident in the medium-term demand for education and health services in investment decisions in Uzbekistan.

Given the expected growth in the demographic burden, it is necessary to develop fundamentally new approaches to the management and development of the energy system, linked to the realities and possibilities of involving the integration potential of the CAR countries in the energy sector, including through the accelerated development of the renewable energy sector. There is a growing urgency to integrate the national energy system into the parameters of a new technological platform based on the use of nuclear, hydrogen and other alternative "green" technologies as soon as possible.

It is recommended to carry out synchronized and phased reforms aimed at improving the efficiency of the use of energy, water and land resources as factors in the sustainable provision of the population with resources in the long term.