Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published an analytical review on the rapidly expanding market for installment-based trade in the country.

In recent years, installment purchases have become one of the most notable and increasingly popular trends in Uzbekistan. On one hand, they help boost household consumption and meet demand for durable goods. On the other, this practice can contribute to a growing hidden debt burden among the population and increase risks to financial stability.

Since late 2021, a steady increase has been observed in Google search queries containing the word “nasia” (in both Latin and Cyrillic scripts), with a particularly strong upward trend for the Latin version “nasiya.” This suggests rising interest in installment options among younger users, who constitute the majority of such searches.

As of today, 307 retail enterprises in Uzbekistan have signed agreements with the Credit Information and Analytical Center (CIAC) and credit bureaus — 53 of them are individual entrepreneurs. Regionally, 36.2% of these businesses are registered in Fergana region, 23.2% in Tashkent city, 12.6% in Namangan, 7.5% in Andijan, and 5.5% in Tashkent region. The lowest share is in Syrdarya (1.2%), Jizzakh (0.8%), and Surkhandarya (0.4%) — likely reflecting differences in population size, income levels, and consumer behavior.

By economic activity (according to OKED-2 classification), 37% of companies linked to the CIAC system are engaged in retail sales of household appliances, 25% in non-specialized retail trade, 11% in ICT equipment sales, and 8% in furniture and home goods.

The report highlights a stable and significant increase in annual revenues of these businesses. In 2018, their total revenue was 8.1 billion soums, growing nearly 25-fold to 201.3 billion soums by 2024. Revenue almost doubled every 1–2 years, with especially sharp increases in 2022–2023 (by 35 billion soums) and 2023–2024 (by 94 billion soums), which may be attributed to growing popularity of installment plans and expansion of product and service offerings under such schemes.

Parallel to this rapid growth, the volume of bank loans obtained by businesses engaged in installment-based trade soared from 22.3 billion soums in 2018 to 1.17 trillion soums in 2024 — a 52-fold increase. Interest rates on these loans also rose from an average of 18.7% in 2018 to 21.7% in 2024.

To analyze the gender and age structure of installment users, a sample study was conducted using data from two organizations operating in this sector. Results showed that 63% of customers are under the age of 35, with men making up 72% and women 53% of their respective age groups.

By 2024, these organizations had a total of 1.9 million customers (1.1 million men and 0.8 million women). One organization alone had 1.7 million unique clients, and as of January 1, 2025, 777,500 of them had additional outstanding bank debt — most of it (68.7%) linked to microcredit services.

The highest average contract amount was recorded among men aged 51–65 (2.0 million soums) and women in the same age group (1.7 million soums). Among young adults aged 18–25, the average was around 900,000 soums.

Regionally, the largest share of installment consumers is found in Tashkent city and region (27%), followed by Fergana and Samarkand regions (9% each). The lowest shares are in Bukhara, Navoi, and Khorezm (4% each) and Syrdarya (3%).

In terms of contract values, the highest averages were seen in Surkhandarya (1.6 million soums) and Khorezm (1.4 million soums), while lower averages were observed in Tashkent and Bukhara (1.2 million soums each), and Fergana (1.1 million soums).

Debt per person from installment purchases is highest among those aged 36–50, averaging 4.2 million soums, and lowest among 18–25-year-olds at 2.9 million soums. Regionally, Tashkent has the highest per-person debt — 5.5 million soums, which is 1.5 times the national average of 3.7 million soums.

Between February 2023 and December 2024, the number of installment contracts grew from 13,500 to 973,000 — a 72.6-fold increase. Meanwhile, the average contract amount remained steady at around 1.2 million soums.

In 2023, there were an average of two contracts per person; by 2024, that number rose to three. In Tashkent, the average is four contracts per person, and in Namangan and Andijan — two each. 52.1% of consumers (971,000 people) had one contract, 17.7% had two, and 4.4% (or 82,000 individuals) had more than ten contracts.

To better understand the market, the Central Bank analyzed pricing and installment terms for one of the most popular electronics — the iPhone 16 Pro Max (256 GB). The study looked at retail prices, installment conditions, markup structures, and equivalent interest rates when compared to bank financing.

For 12-month installment plans, markups ranged from 27.3% to 44.3% over the base price (averaging 39.6%). When converted to equivalent annualized interest rates, this corresponded to 47.1% to 73.8% (average 66.5%).

By contrast, purchasing the same product via a bank loan would typically lead to a markup of about 14–23%, or an average of 17%. Bank credit types included microloans (24.7%), microfinance loans (40.3%), and overdrafts (24.8%).

It’s also noted that many retailers set a base price higher than the market average. For example, while the average market price of an iPhone 16 Pro Max is around 17 million soums (about $1,310), prices in installment-offering stores range from 18 to 23 million soums.

One variation includes down payments: at Brostore.uz, the phone is listed at 17.77 million soums, with a 30% down payment (5.33 million soums). The remainder — 12.44 million soums — is paid over 12 months at 1.805 million soums per month. The total cost becomes 26.99 million soums — a markup of 51.9% (as of December 2024).

Meanwhile, Idea offers 6-month installment plans with no markup, but prices are significantly inflated: for example, an iPhone 16 Pro 128 GB is priced at 21.99 million soums, which is 52.4% above its market average of 14.4 million soums (as of December 2024).

Given the global spread of installment-based payments and their associated risks, many central banks around the world are beginning to consider tighter regulations. Measures under discussion include licensing market participants, enhancing transparency, protecting consumer rights, and implementing data-sharing frameworks.

In Uzbekistan, the growing popularity of installment-based services has become a key trend in the country’s broader economic and digital transformation. While these services promote consumption, they also carry significant risks — notably the buildup of hidden household debt and potential threats to financial stability in the absence of proper regulation.

Preliminary studies indicate that most users are under 35 and often hold multiple contracts. Additionally, product markups in installment plans are typically higher than interest rates on bank loans. To mitigate these risks and support sustainable development of the installment market, the Central Bank emphasizes the need for clear legal and financial regulatory mechanisms.