Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — International rating agency Fitch Ratings has upgraded the Long-Term Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) in both foreign and local currency of three state-owned banks in Uzbekistan from “BB-” to “BB”. The banks' Government Support Ratings (GSR) were also raised from “bb-” to “bb”, while their Viability Ratings (VR) remained unchanged. The outlooks on the ratings are stable.

The rating upgrades follow the improvement of Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating, announced on 26 June 2025, and reflect Fitch’s view of an increased capacity of the government to support state-owned banks.

The long-term IDRs of the three banks have been aligned with Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating, indicating a moderate likelihood of government support, as reflected in the GSR level of “bb”. The stable outlooks on the banks' ratings are consistent with the sovereign outlook.

Fitch’s assessment of support for the National Bank for Foreign Economic Activity of the Republic of Uzbekistan (NBU) takes into account its government ownership, high systemic importance, strategic role in implementing state policy as a key lender to critical sectors, and the relatively low cost of potential support in relation to the country’s international reserves.

Fitch continues to align the GSR and long-term IDRs of the Industrial and Construction Bank (Uzpromstroybank, UICB) and Asakabank with the sovereign level, despite the government’s plans to sell controlling stakes in both banks to foreign strategic investors by the end of 2025. This position reflects their continued state ownership, moderate systemic importance, and the low potential cost of support for the state if needed.

According to Fitch, the privatization of UICB and Asakabank is likely to be significantly delayed due to ongoing reforms of their business models and persistent structural challenges. The agency believes the government will continue to provide capital injections or liquidity support to maintain adequate capital levels until the sales are finalized.

Fitch also upgraded the senior unsecured debt ratings of NBU and UICB to “BB”, in line with their long-term foreign currency IDRs.

The Short-Term IDRs (ST IDRs) of the banks have been affirmed at “B” — the highest possible level given their long-term “BB” rating.

A downgrade of Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating would lead to a corresponding downgrade of the GSR and long-term IDRs of NBU, UICB, and Asakabank.

NBU’s ratings could also be lowered if Fitch reassesses the government’s ability or willingness to support the bank.

The ratings of UICB and Asakabank may be downgraded if controlling stakes are sold to strategic investors with ratings below the sovereign level or to unrated entities. In such a scenario, Fitch may notch down government support assumptions by one level below the sovereign rating, provided the banks retain systemic importance.

Short-term ratings are sensitive to multiple-notch changes in the corresponding long-term IDRs.

The senior unsecured debt ratings of NBU and UICB will also be downgraded in line with any similar downgrade of their long-term IDRs.