Uzbekistan Positioned in Global Energy Crisis: J.P. Morgan Analysis 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Analysts at the US investment bank J.P. Morgan have published an extensive study on the global energy shock of 2026, triggered by a military conflict in the Persian Gulf and the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In a detailed assessment of the vulnerability of 52 major energy-consuming countries to oil and gas price spikes, Uzbekistan occupies a distinct position.

According to the bank’s data, Uzbekistan consumes 1.5 exajoules of useful final energy, accounting for 0.5 percent of global energy consumption. The country ranks 25th among the world’s largest energy consumers.

Direct imports of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz have a limited impact on the country’s energy balance, representing only 6 percent of primary energy consumption. Oil imports account for 6 percent of primary energy, while gas imports reach 18 percent.

The combined share of oil consumption and imported gas in Uzbekistan’s primary energy structure stands at 27 percent. In economic terms, this corresponds to 1.8 terajoules per billion US dollars of GDP (in 2022 prices), indicating a relatively high energy intensity of the economy.

A critical factor in the resilience of Uzbekistan’s energy system is the high share of domestic natural gas production. Internal production provides 65 percent of useful final energy, one of the highest figures among the countries analyzed. This significantly reduces the country’s vulnerability to global LNG price fluctuations.

The coal sector plays a minor role, supplying only 3 percent of final energy consumption through domestic production. Nuclear energy is absent in the country. Renewable energy sources, including biofuels, hydropower, wind, and solar generation, account for 3 percent of total energy consumption.

The overall “isolation factor” from the global energy crisis, combining domestic gas, coal, nuclear energy, and renewables, reaches 71 percent in Uzbekistan. This means nearly three-quarters of energy needs are covered by internal or alternative sources not directly exposed to the oil and gas shock.

Oil used in transport accounts for 4 percent of primary energy, reflecting relatively lower motorization compared to advanced economies. Natural gas used for power generation accounts for 20 percent of primary energy consumption, highlighting the importance of gas-fired electricity production.

J.P. Morgan analysts note that Uzbekistan’s position in the global energy crisis is characterized by relative resilience due to its strong domestic gas production. However, the country remains exposed to global oil price increases due to the nature of oil markets and to fluctuations in imported gas prices.

The study covers a period of acute energy disruption, during which Brent crude prices exceeded 115 US dollars per barrel and European natural gas prices reached critical levels. According to the bank, the conflict disrupted 20 percent of global oil supply, marking the largest shock since World War II.

Futures markets anticipate a significant decline in oil prices in the coming months, while European gas prices are expected to fall more slowly. However, analysts warn that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is not resolved in the near term, prices across the commodity spectrum may remain elevated due to supply constraints and demand adjustment.

The Persian Gulf region is also a major hub for agricultural commodity exports. In 2024, it accounted for 43 percent of global urea exports, 44 percent of sulfur, and 27 percent of ammonia. These inputs are critical for nitrogen-based fertilizers, while sulfuric acid is essential for phosphate fertilizer production.

The crisis comes at a time when global fertilizer supply chains are already under strain. European nitrogen production operates at 75 percent capacity, while Russian ammonia exports have fallen by approximately 85 percent following disruptions and infrastructure damage in recent years.

Fertilizer prices have surged globally. Urea prices increased by 60 percent in the Middle East and reached 700 US dollars per metric ton in China.

Disruptions have also affected sulfuric acid and helium markets. Helium, a byproduct of natural gas processing used in semiconductors and medical imaging, has seen prices double amid supply constraints.

Petrochemical products derived from oil and gas underpin more than 95 percent of industrial goods, including plastics, fertilizers, pharmaceuticals, and synthetic fibers. Around 40 percent of global methanol supply originates from the Persian Gulf and is currently disrupted.

Methanol prices have increased by approximately 50 percent, while major petrochemical inputs such as propylene, ethylene, benzene, and methanol have recorded significant regional price spikes across Europe and Asia.

The study warns that prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and potential damage to energy infrastructure could deepen the crisis. Historical cases show that restoring full LNG production capacity can take years after major disruptions.

Qatar Energy reported damage to LNG facilities, leading to significant production losses over several years and expected force majeure declarations on contracts across multiple countries.

Even undamaged facilities may require months to return to full capacity after disruptions. Asian economies are already experiencing an oil shock comparable to the 1970s, with fuel rationing in several countries.

Global inventories of oil, gas, and industrial goods typically cover only weeks or months of consumption. Extended closure of the Strait could lead to physical shortages affecting global trade and economic activity, particularly in Asia.

Around 3–4 million barrels per day of Saudi oil currently pass through Red Sea terminals, with flows exposed to regional security risks. Tanker limitations through the Suez Canal further constrain logistics.

The report concludes that countries are likely to rebuild inventories, contributing to inflationary pressure and reduced efficiency in global supply chains.

Only four out of ten historical oil price shocks showed rapid normalization. If the Strait of Hormuz crisis persists, elevated commodity prices may remain necessary to balance supply and demand.

Analysts also expect a long-term global shift toward energy efficiency and reduced dependence on geopolitically sensitive fossil fuel imports.

The only certainty highlighted is that the Iranian government’s tolerance for economic pressure remains exceptionally high.