EBRD Forecasts 6.5% GDP Growth for Uzbekistan in 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan's economy posted one of the region's strongest performances in early 2026, with real GDP expanding 8.7% year-on-year in the first quarter. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development forecast overall growth of 6.5% for the full year and 6.0% for 2027, according to its Regional Economic Prospects report published 3 June 2026.

Growth was broad-based and driven primarily by consumer demand. Rising remittances and substantial wage growth supported expansion in the services sector. Industry and construction grew 8% and 15.5% respectively in the January-March period. The EBRD noted that faster-than-expected progress on privatisation could provide additional upside to growth. Key risks include an economic slowdown in Russia, on which Uzbekistan depends heavily for remittances, and inflationary pressures stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict.

Uzbekistan is among the Central Asia and Mongolia group of countries that the EBRD expects to remain resilient to geopolitical shocks and record the highest growth rates across all economies where the bank operates. Combined GDP for the six countries in the region — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan — is projected to grow 5.6% in 2026 and 5.3% in 2027. Economic activity across the region remained robust at the start of 2026, though early signs of a gradual slowdown have emerged. Strong domestic consumption and investment continue to support growth, with the services sector emerging as a key driver alongside construction and manufacturing.

Tajikistan grew an estimated 8% in the first quarter, supported by trade, transport, communications and manufacturing. Fixed capital investment rose 34.2% year-on-year, partly reflecting government spending on the Rogun hydropower plant. In March 2026, Moody's upgraded Tajikistan's sovereign credit rating to B2 with a stable outlook. Full-year GDP growth is forecast at 7.9% for 2026 and 7.0% for 2027. Dependence on remittances from Russia remains the primary vulnerability.

The Kyrgyz Republic also maintained solid growth in the first quarter of 2026, driven by industry, construction and trade. Fixed capital investment rose 25.5%, supported by spending on infrastructure, energy and housing. The EBRD nonetheless revised its growth forecast downward, projecting a slowdown to 8.7% in 2026 and 7.0% in 2027. The bank identified the European Union's 20th sanctions package, announced in late April, as the principal near-term risk. The package restricts exports of dual-use goods to Kyrgyzstan and tightens controls on its financial and logistics sectors.

Kazakhstan, the region's largest economy, faced a drag from the extractive sector, where output fell 11.4% year-on-year in the first quarter due to disruptions on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route and an incident at the Tengiz oilfield. Construction, transport and manufacturing maintained growth momentum. Fixed capital investment rose 6.4%, while household consumption declined amid falling real wages. The EBRD forecast GDP growth slowing to 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. Oil price volatility and potential further pipeline disruptions remain the key risks.

Mongolia sustained growth through an agricultural recovery and active mining sector. Industrial output rose 61.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, reflecting a sharp increase in coal and copper production following weak results in early 2025. Private consumption remained firm, supported in part by 16.5% growth in consumer lending. Real GDP is forecast to expand 5.5% in both 2026 and 2027. A potential slowdown in China represents the main downside risk.

Turkmenistan grew 6.3% in the first quarter of 2026, according to official data. The oil and gas sector exceeded planned production and processing targets, while overall industrial output rose more modestly at 2.4%. The construction sector was supported by state investment and large infrastructure projects. Authorities have launched the fourth expansion phase of the Galkynysh gas field, which is expected to provide additional support to the economy in the medium term. GDP growth is forecast at 6.3% for both 2026 and 2027, with the bank noting potential for higher rates if investment activity accelerates. Heavy dependence on gas exports to China remains the principal vulnerability.

The EBRD warned that growth prospects across the region are increasingly shaped by the pace of domestic reforms and the ability of economies to withstand external shocks. A prolonged Middle East conflict driving energy price volatility and supply chain disruptions, combined with slowdowns among key trading partners Russia and China, constitute the primary risk framework for the broader region.