Fitch Upgrades Outlook on Three Uzbekistan State Utilities

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Fitch Lifts Outlook on Uzbekistan's Three State Power Companies Following Sovereign Upgrade

Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on three Uzbekistan state-owned utilities to Positive from Stable, affirming their long-term issuer default ratings at BB — a direct consequence of the agency's sovereign-level action taken just one week prior.

The announcement, published from Dubai on June 10, 2026, covered Regional Electrical Power Networks JSC, Thermal Power Plants Joint Stock Company, and Uzbekhydroenergo JSC — the three pillars of Uzbekistan's state-controlled power infrastructure.

The sovereign link:

The outlook revisions follow Fitch's upgrade of Uzbekistan's sovereign credit outlook from Stable to Positive on June 3, 2026. The agency was explicit about the transmission mechanism: all three companies carry credit profiles that are closely tethered to the sovereign rating, reflecting deep structural reliance on state support including government guarantees over their debt obligations.

For Regional Electrical Power Networks JSC and Thermal Power Plants Joint Stock Company, Fitch assessed their ratings as near-equivalent to the sovereign, given that a substantial portion of each company's debt is either directly state-provided or backed by government guarantees — a support structure the agency expects to remain in place.

Uzbekhydroenergo's specific profile:

The hydropower company's rating is similarly anchored to the sovereign, with state-guaranteed debt exceeding 75% of total obligations as of end-2025 and through the first quarter of 2026. Fitch noted this ratio is gradually declining, and flagged the possibility of a future methodology reassessment for government-related entities as the debt composition shifts.

What could move the ratings:

Fitch identified several triggers for future rating action in either direction: changes in Uzbekistan's sovereign credit profile, the trajectory of state-guaranteed debt ratios, and shifts in each company's standalone financial performance and regulatory operating environment.

The triple outlook revision consolidates a broader positive reassessment of Uzbekistan's fiscal and institutional trajectory — with the sovereign upgrade serving as the master variable from which corporate credit improvements now flow. For international investors in Uzbekistan's energy sector debt, the Positive outlook signals that a full rating upgrade to BB+ remains in play if sovereign fundamentals continue to strengthen.